CONSULT THE EXPERTS?

The 'Dr. Fox Effect' is the name of a series of experiments
that have demonstrated that so-called 'experts' are often
little more correct than random guesses. It made no dif-
ference whether the expert was highly educated, had ac-
cess to hidden information, or had many years of experi-
ence. The only consistent predictor of accuracy was
fame, and it was an inverse relationship, i.e. famous pre-
dictors were less accurate than unknown ones.

'Dr. Fox' was a made-up name for an actor who presented
professionals with what was essentially a meaningless
lecture. After the lecture most of the audience declared
that they were impressed with the 'doctor', showing how
much expectation has to do with believeability.

Those experts that were the worst at predictions tended
to be strongly opinionated but highly outspoken. Those
who were more cautious and prone to self-doubt were far
more likely to get matters right.

Other experiments point in the same direction: Psych-
ologists diagnosing clients did no better than their sec-
retaries; maze rats consistently outperformed groups of
Yale undergraduates at understanding the ways of maze
optimality.

What do these insights mean to those who comprehend
this information? --Perhaps taking 'experts' opinions
with a large grain of salt. But if we can't rely on experts,
how will we know what is true? This is an attitude that
was formerly known as 'existential'; human beings are
suspended over a void of the unknown and uncertain.
That is our lot. What will our future be?

--Taken from an editorial by Nicholas Kristof, col-
umnist of the NY Times. 3-26-09

OUTSIDE THE BOX

Think outside the box, as is said these days. Sounds good,
but what happens when there is no box?

WHAT'S TO BECOME OF WARD CHURCHILL?

I see Ward Churchill is in the news again, still fighting
against his dismissal from the University of Colorado.
Churchill said infamously that the people killed in the
World Trade Center were "little Eichmanns", which
prompted the University to investigate his scholarship
and find it wanting. He was fired on grounds of plag-
iarism and falsification of material, which he is pro-
testing.

Churchill, whose academic specialty is Native Amer-
ican history, is popular with Indian activists because
he can be depended upon to say radical things, of
which "little Eichmanns" is the most egregious. And
he makes some good points; however, there is another
factor to his rhetoric that makes him suspect, at least
to my mind.

Exposing the truth is one thing but there is a pervasive
and chronic bitterness and even ugliness to his state-
ments which makes it seem that he has a hidden agen-
da. I'm not sure what that might be and chances are
that Churchill himself is not aware of it, but i'd imagine
it has to do with his parents telling him he couldn't do
things when he was a little boy. Speaking the truth
doesn't require cynicism; in fact it undercuts it. One
wonders, what makes him talk that way?

He also has claimed Indian blood, which he has been
unable to document. Poor Ward Churchill, he went
one step too far and now he's paying for it. Perhaps
now he'll change his ways?

PEACE PILGRIM? WHAT IS A PEACE PILGRIM?

Actually, i don't know who Peace Pilgrim was in 'real'
life, since she started to call herself by that identifier
in 1952. I never met her but i've heard abt her; in fact
i have a book in which her thoughts have been tran-
scribed by friends of hers, and by means of that know-
ledge i have developed a tremendous amount of respect
for her.

Peace Pilgrim was what one might call a 'spiritual gen-
ius', along the lines of Gandhi, Ramakrishna, and St.
Francis. It seems that early in life she had an experi-
ence that could be called 'cosmic consciousness', the
direct experience of the Unity of all things. After that
she abandoned her former life and took to the road,
wandering without income, home, or worldly goals.

Why did she do such a crazy thing? Because she wanted
to share her message about peace with the world. Now
this kind of matter would be perfectly understood in say,
India, where spiritual seekers are an integral part of the
social fabric, but in the US it would be considered, well,
crazy. But she knew what she was doing.

She walked until she was given shelter, fasted until she
was given food, and had no organization to back her. Nor
did she accept money on her pilgrimages. Her early pow-
erful experience(s) made her absolutely fearless. On the
back of her simple tunic were the words "25,000 miles
for peace". She stopped counting after that. In her time
she influenced many, many people and was welcomed
wherever she went, altho she made no plans and lived as
far as possible anonymously. In 1981 she was struck by a
car while walking down the road and died instantly.

This entry is no mere praise of her life and being, but just
a little bit more, because i want to talk about my own re-
lationship with Peace Pilgrim. Many years ago i was driv-
ing down the road at a fast pace when i happened to pass
by a pedestrian who going in the same direction i was. I
don't know if i was speeding or not but i was going way
too fast for the situation and as i passed the woman by i
noticed how differently she looked. She was wearing a
blue tunic and blue pants and she turned a little in my
direction as i sped past her. Her hair was gray.

I quickly forgot about her altho i must have noticed
something special in her regard because when i heard
about Peace Pilgrim many years later, her image came
instantly to mind. Did i pass by Peace Pilgrim on that
occasion? I swear i did, even if it seems unlikely. (And
it does.)

In Hinduism, and perhaps other disciplines, separation
by time or space makes no difference in the god-seeking
world. A man was asked who his wisdom teacher was and
without hesitating he replied, "Shankara". That would
seem to present a problem, since the great teacher Shan-
kara lived many hundreds of years ago; nevertheless it
was the man's strong belief that he had a relationship
with the holy man, regardless of temporality.

Then do i have a relationship with Peace Pilgrim in spite
of the fact that i never formally interacted with her? The
intellect says probably not, while the heart and intuition
say an unequivocal yes. I don't think that this has any-
thing to do with me personally, but says much about the
charisma of Peace Pilgrim, whose energy has crossed
time and space to make an indelible impression on me,
and others. And i still believe i 'met' her, regardless of
mundane probabilities. Such was her being.